It seems that everybody holding assets long term is waiting for the hint from the FED to get out. I do think Uncle Benny can make the landing relatively soft, but it will be felt nonetheless with such a soft economy on life support. The biggest problem is the Federal Government's stranglehold on everything, and I know they are just a bunch of sellouts and idiots (with few exceptions) so this crap from them will continue. The next phase of Obama's dismantling of America, as we knew it, will come in the form of regulations related to Climate Change. At least he is going to try. Don't worry. I am not being partisan. He and the rest of the liberal Democrats have plenty of help from RINOs (Republican In Name Only) who are nothing but big government politicians pretending to be conservatives.
If they pass this immigration bill, Americans (more like everyone here no matter who you are) can expect it to be harder to find jobs, (as though it is not hard enough already) and lower wages going forward. The cheaper labor will find it easier since this is what the corporate and business masters want. The result will be increasing the foreign work pool who will work at lower wages competing against the rest of the people for the same jobs. Meanwhile, the taxpayer, as usual, will get stuck subsidizing the bill. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. The border fence is just a ruse to get some congressional members out of the hot seat with their naive and willfully uninformed constituents. It does not matter if they close the border at every inch. The bill is otherwise horrible. Plus they always lie about the fence anyway, and this time will be no different. This attack applies to the skilled and unskilled since the bill is not merely about illegal immigration. In sum, the bill is an attack on the American tax payer and worker. What we have going on here is nothing more than a huge centralized power grab and expansion of the Federal Government. I only mention the politics because of its affect on the economy. We will feel the effects of these policies just as we have so far. Thus far, the policies coming out of Washington have restricted growth for what could have been a better rebound. The stranglehold will continue, indeed the effects of it will be worse going forward from both past policy making, such as Obamacare, and any nuckleheaded policies going forward. Any tightening from the Fed is going to exacerbate the problem. Make no mistake. This government does not care about this Republic nor YOU! With few exceptions, their aim is to make us all subjects and control everything.
Update: The first graph below is of the Minis live right before I published this post at 4:45 AM on Thursday. The two StockCharts.com charts below are after the close on Thursday. The Intermediate Trend is now down in my opinion with the evidence being the support break on Thursday and the weekly MACD.
Gold and Silver: A Great Day to be a Bear
Elliott wave analysis is the blade-proof glove with which "to catch a falling knife"
By Elliott Wave InternationalIn the wee morning hours before dawn on Thursday, June 20, the precious metals' rooster crowed, "Cock-a-doodle-DOH!"
It was the ultimate wake-up call:
First, gold prices plummeted 4% then 5% then 6% below $1300 per ounce to their lowest level in nearly three years. Soon, silver followed in an even steeper drop below $20.At 6:45 am, one popular news outlet went live on the scene and wrote: "It's a bloodbath at the moment with most technical support levels being broken ... calling a bottom would be like trying to catch a falling knife." (Marketwatch)
As for what triggered said knife to fall, you ask?
Well, according to the usual experts and every mainstream news outlet under the sun, the gold and silver bottom fell out after investors digested stimulus-tapering comments from the June 18-19 Federal Open Market Committee minutes.
Upon closer examination, though, there are several problems with this notion:
- Fears of the Fed starting to twist shut its QE tap are anything but new. Gold and silver investors have had months to digest this potentiality.
- Not to mention the fact that the June 19 minutes made no direct mention of actually stopping its bond-buying program. FED Chairman Ben Bernanke was hypothetical at best, saying, "IF the incoming data are broadly consistent with ... and remain broadly aligned with our current expectations ... it would be appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year."
- And, last, gold and silver prices did not fall immediately after the FOMC minutes were released. In fact, they rose. Headline: "Gold Prices Show Muted Reaction To Upbeat Fed" (Mining.com)
That leaves this explanation: The gold/silver sell-off was the most probable scenario as outlined by the Elliott wave playbook. In this case, that playbook is EWI's Short Term Update.
In the June 17 Short Term Update -- before the FOMC meeting even got started, mind you -- our analysis set the bearish stage in gold and silver via these charts and analysis:
"[Gold]'s overall trading remains weak. The bounce we noted last evening is over.... A decline through $1373 should indicate that wave __ of __ down is under way. The downside potential indicates at least a sell-off into the $1250-1300 range."
"[Silver] remains weak and prices appear on the verge of declining to new lows beneath $20.07.... Our near-term stance remains bearish."
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